Oil Prices Gain $1+ as OPEC+ Output Hike Seen Modest Amid Russia Sanctions Risk
Global oil markets opened the week with renewed momentum as oil gains after OPEC+ output hike were recorded on Monday. Brent crude rose $1.13, or 1.7%, to $66.63 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed $1.02, or 1.7%, to $62.89.
The price jump comes after OPEC+ announced a modest production increase from October, smaller than many analysts had anticipated. The restrained output hike eased concerns about oversupply, while geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia’s crude exports provided additional support to the market.
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OPEC+ Decision: A Smaller-Than-Expected Increase
OPEC+, a coalition that includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and allied producers, agreed to raise collective output by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in October.
This increase is significantly lower than previous monthly adjustments:
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555,000 bpd in August and September
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411,000 bpd in June and July
Because some members are already overproducing, analysts believe the latest quota will have a limited real impact. Much of the increase may already be present in global supply, tempering fears of a large-scale market shift.
Market Reaction: A “Sell the Rumor, Buy the Fact” Moment
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, described the move as a “classic sell the rumor, buy the fact reaction.” Traders had already priced in expectations of a larger output hike, leading to last week’s losses when Brent and WTI fell more than 3%.
With the announcement confirming a more modest rise, oil prices rebounded, stabilizing market sentiment.
Russia Sanctions: A Key Driver of Oil Market Uncertainty
Beyond OPEC+ production policy, attention is shifting toward U.S. foreign policy. President Donald Trump signaled readiness for a “second phase” of sanctions against Russia, which could target buyers of Russian crude.
Frederic Lasserre, head of research at energy trader Gunvor, warned that such measures could significantly disrupt global crude flows.
The geopolitical risk escalated further after Russia launched its largest air attack of the Ukraine war, striking Kyiv and killing at least four people. The assault also set a major government building on fire, intensifying global condemnation and raising the likelihood of harsher sanctions.
Energy Demand Outlook Still Fragile
While supply remains the central focus, weak economic signals are casting doubt on future demand. A disappointing U.S. jobs report last week highlighted ongoing concerns about slowing economic growth, weighing on expectations for fuel consumption.
Both Brent and WTI lost more than 2% on Friday, extending their declines to over 3% for the week. Analysts remain cautious, noting that while sanctions and modest OPEC+ increases may support prices in the short term, broader economic conditions will be crucial to sustaining gains.
Goldman Sachs Outlook: Oil Surplus in 2026
Adding to the debate, Goldman Sachs released its latest outlook over the weekend. The bank projected a slightly larger oil surplus in 2026, as production upgrades across the Americas are expected to offset weaker Russian supply.
Key points from Goldman’s note:
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2025 Brent/WTI price forecasts remain unchanged.
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2026 average prices expected at $56 (Brent) and $52 (WTI).
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Stronger global demand is anticipated but will be met with supply growth in non-OPEC regions.
The outlook reinforces the long-term uncertainty in oil markets, even as near-term volatility is shaped by OPEC+ and geopolitical shifts.
What Comes Next for Oil Prices?
Traders are closely watching:
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OPEC+ compliance with new production levels.
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U.S. sanctions policy toward Russia and its crude buyers.
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Macroeconomic signals including jobs data, inflation, and interest rate outlook.
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Seasonal demand changes as the Northern Hemisphere heads into winter months.
With multiple forces in play, analysts expect continued volatility. The modest OPEC+ hike provides short-term stability, but larger shifts could come from geopolitics and economic data.
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