US Payrolls Shock: 911,000 Jobs Lost in Revision Labor Market Weaker Than Expected
US Payrolls Shock: 911,000 Jobs Lost in Revision
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has revealed a startling benchmark revision showing that the economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously reported in the past year. This sharp downgrade suggests that the labor market was far weaker even before trade tensions and tariffs intensified under President Donald Trump’s administration. Economists now estimate that monthly job growth averaged just 71,000, compared to the previously reported 147,000.
Job Growth Slowed Before Trade Policies Took Effect
The revised payroll data highlights that the labor market slowdown had already begun before U.S. trade policies took center stage. Experts say this underlines structural weaknesses in the economy, where sectors like manufacturing, transportation, and leisure services experienced deeper declines than earlier understood.
Economists Question Employment Reliability
The gap between preliminary job data and revised figures has raised questions about the reliability of the U.S. employment reports. Monthly surveys used by the BLS often overstate growth compared to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which reflects more accurate unemployment insurance records. Read more U.S. economy updates here.
Political Reactions Intensify
The revisions have triggered heated political reactions. Former President Donald Trump openly criticized the BLS and removed its commissioner, alleging bias in job reports. Meanwhile, economists and policy experts warn that political interference could damage the independence of statistical agencies, undermining confidence in U.S. labor data.
Impact on Key Industries
Major job losses were recorded across sectors. The leisure and hospitality industry lost 176,000 jobs, trade and transportation were cut by 226,000, while professional and business services declined by 158,000. Manufacturing and government payrolls also saw sharp reductions, painting a concerning picture for the U.S. workforce.
Business Outlook Remains Uncertain
With rising borrowing costs, expensive small business credit, and ongoing tariff pressures, companies remain cautious about expansion. Many small firms are also struggling due to increased reliance on automation and artificial intelligence tools, reducing the need for new hires.
Support for BLS and Credible Statistics
Amid political criticism, leading economists and organizations like the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) have urged policymakers to protect the independence of BLS. They argue that undermining the agency would weaken the U.S.’s ability to maintain accurate and trusted economic statistics.
Job Growth Slowed Before Trade Policies Took Effect
The revised payroll data shows that U.S. job growth had already been weakening before the Trump administration’s tariffs came into full force. This means the labor market slowdown cannot be attributed to trade tensions alone but reflects deeper economic challenges that predated those policies. Economists suggest this trend points toward structural issues within the U.S. economy.
Economists Question Employment Reliability
Many economists are now questioning the reliability of monthly job reports due to the large gap between initial estimates and the revised figures. The discrepancy raises concerns that the labor market may have been overstated for several months, giving policymakers and investors an overly optimistic picture of economic health.
Political Reactions Intensify
The sharp revisions have also sparked political controversy. Former President Donald Trump criticized the BLS and dismissed its commissioner, accusing the agency of misrepresenting labor data. On the other hand, economists warn that political pressure on statistical agencies could damage their independence and credibility, making future reports less trustworthy.
Business Outlook Remains Uncertain
With higher borrowing costs, persistent inflation concerns, and global trade uncertainties, businesses remain cautious about hiring. Small businesses in particular face rising credit costs and reduced demand, which could limit future job creation. Analysts warn that without policy support and labor market reforms, the slowdown may extend into the coming quarters.
External Reference on Job Market
For a broader perspective on employment and economic forecasts, visit Reuters Labor Market Report.
